Conditions · rule 2026-10-20 v1 · updated 2026-10-20
Is each part of the NWA economy running hot or cool?
Each measure is compared with its own pace over the last five years, by one fixed rule. Right now: 1 heating, 5 steady, 5 cooling. The labels describe the data, not where it is headed.
| Measure | Label | Latest | Change from a year earlier | Five-year average | Spread (1 s.d.) | z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate Unemployed share of the labor force, Benton + Washington · sign flipped: a rise is less activity | Heating | 2.91% 2026-08 | -0.70 pts | -0.11 pts since 2021-07 | 0.79 | -0.74 |
| Air travel XNA passengers per year | Steady | 2.5M 2025 | +10.3% | +11.9% since 2015 | 31.15 | -0.05 |
| Hiring Private-sector hires, Benton + Washington (Census QWI) | Steady | 41,349 2025-Q4 | -1.3% | +3.7% since 2020-Q4 | 15.70 | -0.31 |
| Jobless claims Arkansas initial unemployment claims, 4-week average (statewide; no county weekly data exists) · sign flipped: a rise is less activity | Steady | 1,122 2026-10-10 | -8.9% | -7.8% since 2021-10-16 | 26.92 | -0.04 |
| Mortgage rates Freddie Mac 30-year fixed average (national) · sign flipped: a rise is less activity | Steady | 7.40% 2026-10-15 | +1.13 pts | +0.70 pts since 2021-10-21 | 1.24 | 0.34 |
| New businesses Business applications filed, Benton + Washington (Census Business Formation Statistics) | Steady | 8,321 2025 | +6.9% | +9.3% since 2015 | 9.28 | -0.26 |
| Building permits New housing units permitted, Benton + Washington, 12-month total | Cooling | 8,823 2026-08 | -1.0% | +11.6% since 2023-12 | 7.72 | -1.63 |
| City sales tax City sales tax collections, six largest cities, 12-month total (DFA) | Cooling | $266.1M 2026-09 | +1.7% | +2.8% since 2024-02 | 2.07 | -0.56 |
| Home prices FHFA all-transactions house price index, Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro | Cooling | 395.3 (index) 2026-Q2 | +3.7% | +11.8% since 2021-Q2 | 8.30 | -0.99 |
| Hotels & restaurants Fayetteville hotel, motel and restaurant tax, 12-month total | Cooling | $5.5M 2026-08 | +1.9% | +8.6% since 2022-12 | 8.33 | -0.80 |
| People working Residents with a job, Benton + Washington (BLS LAUS) | Cooling | 309,511 2026-08 | +3.0% | +3.8% since 2021-07 | 1.32 | -0.59 |
How we label
For each measure we take its change from a year earlier (percent change, or percentage-point change for rates). We compare the newest change with the same kind of change over the previous five years (60 months, 20 quarters, 260 weeks, or 10 years for yearly data). z = (newest change - five-year average) / five-year standard deviation. Heating if z is +0.5 or more, Cooling if z is -0.5 or less, Steady in between. For measures where a rise is bad news for activity (unemployment rate, jobless claims, mortgage rates) the sign is flipped, so Heating always means 'more activity than usual'. If there are fewer than 24 monthly, 12 quarterly, 104 weekly or 8 yearly changes to compare, the label is 'Not enough history'.
The same rule, applied to each city's own sales tax and permits, is the Growth Radar.
In plain English: Heating means a measure is growing noticeably faster than its normal pace over the last five years; Cooling means noticeably slower; Steady means about normal. A measure can still be growing and read Cooling, because the last five years include the fast 2021–2022 rebound.
Where each number comes from
- Unemployment rate: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics. down 0.70 pts from a year earlier vs a five-year average of -0.11 pts.
- Air travel: Northwest Arkansas National Airport (XNA). up 10.3% from the year before vs a five-year average of +11.9%.
- Hiring: Census LEHD Quarterly Workforce Indicators. down 1.3% from a year earlier vs a five-year average of +3.7%.
- Jobless claims: U.S. Department of Labor, ETA 539. down 8.9% from 52 weeks earlier vs a five-year average of -7.8%.
- Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey®. up 1.13 pts from 52 weeks earlier vs a five-year average of +0.70 pts.
- New businesses: Census BFS. up 6.9% from the year before vs a five-year average of +9.3%.
- Building permits: U.S. Census Bureau BPS. down 1.0% from a year earlier vs a five-year average of +11.6%.
- City sales tax: Arkansas DFA local distribution by NAICS. up 1.7% from a year earlier vs a five-year average of +2.8%. History starts March 2022, so the comparison window is shorter than five years.
- Home prices: FHFA HPI. up 3.7% from a year earlier vs a five-year average of +11.8%.
- Hotels & restaurants: Fayetteville A&P Commission (Experience Fayetteville). up 1.9% from a year earlier vs a five-year average of +8.6%. Bentonville's A&P tax has only 19 months on file, too short for this rule; it is shown on the chart instead.
- People working: BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics. up 3.0% from a year earlier vs a five-year average of +3.8%.
Data as published at /api/v1/conditions.json. See corrections.