Washington, right now · official sources, dated

The federal backdrop to every NWA deal

What borrowing costs, what the Fed is expected to do, how big the federal books are, and how much federal money lands in Benton and Washington counties. Each figure says where it's from and the day or month it describes.

Federal debt

$40.59T

▲ 6.6% in a year

U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny · 2026-10-29

10-year Treasury

4.94%

U.S. Treasury par yield · 2026-10-30

SOFR

3.94%

Federal Reserve Bank of New York · 2026-10-29

30-year mortgage

7.24%

Freddie Mac PMMS® · 2026-10-29

Next Fed meeting

December 8-9

28 days away · with new projections · Federal Reserve calendar

GDPNow, current quarter (estimate)

3.2%

Atlanta Fed model estimate, annual rate · not an official GDP figure · 2026-10-29

Rates

what money costs

The Treasury yield curve

Par yields by maturity: today, a month ago, a year ago

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. An upward slope means longer money costs more; an "inverted" curve (short above long) has preceded most recessions.

Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

10-year minus 3-month spread

Month-end, since 1990. Below zero = inverted

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates. Spreads computed by the 479's research desk from Treasury's published yields.

Data through 2026-10 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Short rates that price floating CRE loans

SOFR and the effective fed funds rate, daily

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York (SOFR and EFFR).

Data through 2026-10-29 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Mortgage rates

Freddie Mac 30- and 15-year fixed, weekly

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (freddiemac.com/pmms)

Data through 2026-10-29 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Bank prime rate, September 2026 average: 6.87% (Federal Reserve H.15). Fed target range: 3.75–4.00% as of Oct 29, 2026.

U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates · as of Oct 30, 2026

The Fed

meetings and projections

Upcoming meetings

Meeting	Dates	Projections
December 2026	8-9	Yes
January 2027	26-27	—
March 2027	16-17	Yes
April 2027	27-28	—
June 2027	8-9	Yes
July 2027	27-28	—
September 2027	14-15	Yes
October 2027	26-27	—

FOMC median projection, Sep 16, 2026

Projection	2026	2027	2028	2029	Longer run
Change in real GDP	2.3	2.4	2.2	2.1	2.0
Unemployment rate	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.1	4.2
PCE inflation	3.7	2.3	2.1	2.0	2.0
Core PCE inflation	3.4	2.5	2.2	2.0	—
Federal funds rate	4.1	4.1	3.9	3.6	3.2

Projections are the median of Fed participants' forecasts, not a policy decision.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · as of Oct 26, 2026

Debt and deficit

U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data

Total federal debt

Debt to the Penny, daily, $ trillions

Source: U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data (fiscaldata.treasury.gov)

Data through 2026-10-29 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Monthly deficit

$ billions; above zero = deficit, below = surplus

Source: U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). Monthly Treasury Statement, receipts minus outlays.

Data through 2026-09 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Interest paid on the debt, by month

$ billions · fiscal year ended Sep 30, 2026: $1,360B

Source: U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data (fiscaldata.treasury.gov)

Data through 2026-09 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Average rate the Treasury pays

Total marketable debt, monthly

Source: U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data (fiscaldata.treasury.gov)

Data through 2026-09 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Annual federal deficit

Fiscal years, $ billions (actuals as compiled by CBO)

Source: Congressional Budget Office (github.com/US-CBO/eval-projections)

Data through 2025 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

U.S. Treasury, Fiscal Data (fiscaldata.treasury.gov) · as of Oct 30, 2026

Inflation and jobs

BLS · BEA

Inflation

Consumer prices, change from a year earlier

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Not seasonally adjusted; the year-over-year change is computed from the published index.

Data through 2026-09 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

U.S. jobs and unemployment

Unemployment rate, monthly

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Data through 2026-09 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

U.S. real GDP growth

Quarterly, percent change at an annual rate

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Data through 2026-Q2 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

NWA payroll jobs

Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro, thousands, monthly

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Payroll jobs located in the metro (establishment survey), not seasonally adjusted.

Data through 2026-09 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · as of Oct 26, 2026

Federal money in NWA

obligations by place of performance

Federal agencies committed $1.78B to work performed in Benton County and $1.53B in Washington County in FY 2026: contracts, grants, loans and direct payments, by where the money is spent.

Federal obligations, Benton and Washington counties

Federal fiscal years (October–September)

Source: USAspending.gov. Obligations (money committed), not cash paid out; figures are revised as agencies report. FY2027 began October 1 and isn't shown until it has a full year of awards.

Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

USAspending.gov · as of Oct 26, 2026