Growth Radar · sales tax through 2026-08 · permits through 2026-09
Which towns are speeding up, and which are cooling off
Each city is measured against its own last five years, not against its neighbors, so a small town growing fast for it can read Heating next to a big city that is merely steady. Sales tax: 3 heating, 7 steady, 21 cooling. Homes permitted: 2 heating, 8 steady, 6 cooling.
| City | Local sales tax, 12 months | Homes permitted, 12 months | Population, 1 yr | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Label | Change vs 5-yr avg | 3 years | Label | Change vs 5-yr avg | 3 years | ||
| Gravette Edge town | Heating | +33.8% avg +9.5% · $2.4M | Too few permits | — 26 homes | +1.6% | ||
| Elm Springs Small city | Heating | +22.0% avg +11.8% · $341K | Too few permits | — 0 homes | -1.0% | ||
| Little Flock Small city | Heating | +15.1% avg +7.7% · $349K | Too few permits | — 30 homes | +0.1% | ||
| Tontitown Small city | Cooling | +3.4% avg +12.8% · $6.7M | Heating | +58.5% avg -26.0% · 84 homes | +1.0% | ||
| Cave Springs Small city | Steady | +19.5% avg +13.5% · $2.8M | Steady | -14.1% avg -4.9% · 67 homes | +1.8% | ||
| Greenland Small city | Steady | +32.5% avg +29.2% · $1.4M | Too few permits | — 1 homes | -1.2% | ||
| Springtown Edge town | Steady | +23.6% avg +21.6% · $13K | — | — | +3.3% | ||
| Rogers Core city | Cooling | +3.6% avg +8.4% · $67.0M | Heating | +5.4% avg -1.3% · 667 homes | +1.9% | ||
| Goshen Small city | Steady | +10.0% avg +16.4% · $590K | Too few permits | — 8 homes | +0.6% | ||
| Winslow Edge town | Steady | +1.8% avg +12.2% · $156K | — | — | -1.4% | ||
| Eureka Springs Small city | Cooling | +2.0% avg +7.6% · $4.3M | — | — | +2.1% | ||
| Johnson Small city | Cooling | +12.2% avg +26.1% · $2.7M | Too few permits | — 105 homes | -0.7% | ||
| Prairie Grove Small city | Cooling | +9.7% avg +15.5% · $3.8M | Steady | +23.7% avg +28.0% · 188 homes | +4.3% | ||
| Sulphur Springs Edge town | Cooling | +10.6% avg +31.9% · $128K | Too few permits | — 0 homes | -0.2% | ||
| Lowell Small city | Cooling | -0.8% avg +9.3% · $9.5M | Steady | +35.5% avg +17.1% · 210 homes | +5.3% | ||
| Lincoln Small city | Cooling | +3.2% avg +17.2% · $1.4M | Too few permits | — 7 homes | -0.6% | ||
| Decatur Edge town | Cooling | -0.8% avg +20.5% · $615K | Not enough history | +86.1% 67 homes | +9.4% | ||
| Farmington Small city | Steady | +6.8% avg +9.6% · $4.2M | Cooling | -19.8% avg +19.1% · 194 homes | +1.4% | ||
| Bentonville Core city | Cooling | -1.3% avg +7.9% · $52.3M | Steady | -8.4% avg +40.1% · 1,487 homes | +1.8% | ||
| Fayetteville Core city | Cooling | +2.2% avg +6.7% · $70.3M | Steady | -0.2% avg +16.1% · 2,090 homes | +2.8% | ||
| Garfield Edge town | Cooling | +0.4% avg +12.1% · $356K | Too few permits | — 9 homes | +1.3% | ||
| Avoca Edge town | Cooling | -4.1% avg +5.8% · $155K | Too few permits | — 16 homes | +8.8% | ||
| Bella Vista Core city | Steady | +9.4% avg +17.3% · $10.5M | Cooling | -14.0% avg +13.1% · 725 homes | +3.7% | ||
| Gentry Edge town | Cooling | -9.4% avg +8.7% · $2.1M | Steady | +17.1% avg +12.5% · 144 homes | +4.6% | ||
| West Fork Small city | Cooling | -2.6% avg +6.3% · $1.3M | Too few permits | — 17 homes | -0.4% | ||
| Springdale Core city | Cooling | -2.9% avg +8.1% · $52.2M | Steady | -2.6% avg +28.5% · 494 homes | +1.2% | ||
| Elkins Small city | Cooling | +1.4% avg +8.1% · $2.2M | Steady | -32.0% avg -10.0% · 66 homes | +3.7% | ||
| Pea Ridge Small city | Cooling | +3.4% avg +35.6% · $4.3M | Cooling | -17.3% avg +20.3% · 431 homes | +10.2% | ||
| Siloam Springs Core city | Cooling | +3.0% avg +7.2% · $13.7M | Cooling | -54.8% avg +10.0% · 194 homes | +5.4% | ||
| Centerton Small city | Cooling | +2.6% avg +11.1% · $7.3M | Cooling | -37.3% avg -0.5% · 373 homes | +5.7% | ||
| Highfill Small city | Cooling | +8.0% avg +45.6% · $2.6M | Cooling | -81.3% avg +13.4% · 40 homes | +30.6% | ||
Sorted by labels, then by how far each city sits from its own norm. Sparklines show the 12-month total over the last three years, each on its own scale. "Rate change?" marks a jump of 40% or more in sales tax, which usually means a new local tax or a rate change rather than more spending. Population: Census estimates, change in the latest year.
How we label
For each city and measure we take the percent change in the 12-month total from a year earlier, and compare the newest change with the same change over the previous five years (60 months). z = (newest change - five-year average) / five-year standard deviation. Heating if z is +0.5 or more, Cooling if z is -0.5 or less, Steady in between. With fewer than 24 earlier changes to compare, the label is 'Not enough history'. Building permits are not labeled when the city permitted fewer than 30 homes in the 12 months a year earlier, because a single subdivision swings the change.
This is the same rule as the Conditions strip, applied to each city's own history. Labels describe the data, not where a town is headed, and they rank places, never properties. Sources: Arkansas DFA local net tax distributions (report month); U.S. Census Bureau Building Permits Survey (place level). Data: /api/v1/growth-radar.json · corrections. For a different view of the same towns, see the Growth Pressure Score.