Reports · Semi-annual · Jul 2019 – Dec 2019
Northwest Arkansas, Second half 2019
Local sales-tax receipts across 26 NWA cities (excluding 1 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 11.4% versus the same period a year earlier. Receipts totaled $100.0M across all 28 reporting cities.
What happened
generated from the data
- Local sales-tax receipts across 26 NWA cities (excluding 1 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 11.4% versus the same period a year earlier. Receipts totaled $100.0M across all 28 reporting cities.
- Among the Core cities, Bentonville led at +26.9% and Fayetteville trailed at +4.5%.
- The fastest register growth was outside the Core: Prairie Grove at +39.9%.
- 1 city shows a move large enough to reflect a new or changed local tax rather than spending (Gentry); they are marked in the table and left out of the rankings above.
- Builders pulled permits for 3,961 residential units region-wide, up 90.2% year over year.
- The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 3.68% in the period, 100 basis points lower than a year earlier.
- Employed residents in the NWA metro averaged 262,936 in the period, up 3.4% from a year earlier.
- Momentum at period end (12-month sales-tax growth vs a year earlier): speeding up in Bentonville, Siloam Springs, Bella Vista, Rogers.
- The metro counted 260,400 jobs in December 2019, up 8,800 from December 2018; professional & business services added the most (+2,800) (BLS, preliminary for recent months).
Every sentence above is a fixed template filled with computed values; no figure is typed by hand. Trend arrows compare this period with the three before it of the same length: they describe, they don't forecast. Market commentary, not advice.
Demand: the registers
local sales tax · vs same period a year earlier
Supply: homes permitted
| Place | Units | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fayetteville | 1,263 | +446.8% |
| Tontitown | 556 | +929.6% |
| Bentonville | 415 | -19.1% |
| Centerton | 376 | +97.9% |
| Rogers | 374 | +4.8% |
| Springdale | 183 | +144.0% |
| Bella Vista | 149 | +27.4% |
| Siloam Springs | 113 | +19.0% |
| Cave Springs | 77 | +83.3% |
| Prairie Grove | 61 | -45.0% |
| Pea Ridge | 59 | +34.1% |
| Highfill | 53 | small base |
| Elkins | 51 | +59.4% |
| Lowell | 50 | +6.4% |
| Gentry | 42 | +75.0% |
| Farmington | 36 | +5.9% |
| Gravette | 32 | +10.3% |
| Elm Springs | 31 | +47.6% |
| Goshen | 16 | -5.9% |
| Lincoln | 8 | small base |
| Little Flock | 7 | -46.1% |
| Johnson | 5 | small base |
| Greenland | 3 | small base |
| West Fork | 1 | small base |
Census Building Permits Survey, residential units authorized (all building sizes). Places with zero units in the period are omitted; changes off fewer than 10 units show as "small base".
Bentonville's permit records in this project begin 2024-01-02. For earlier periods, the Census homes-permitted table (left) covers every city.
City of Bentonville permits-issued reports (public record). Valuation as printed by the city. Rogers, Springdale and Fayetteville join as their records load.
Economy
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Employed residents, NWA metro | 262,936 | +3.4% |
| Unemployment rate, NWA metro | 2.50% | window avg |
| Unemployment rate, U.S. | 3.60% | window avg |
| FHFA house price index, NWA | 2019-Q4 | +4.6% |
BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics and FHFA All-Transactions HPI via FRED. Metro = Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO (includes Madison Co. AR and McDonald Co. MO).
Capital markets
| Rate or balance | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year mortgage, average | 3.68% | -100 bp y/y |
| 10-year Treasury, average | 1.79% | |
| 2-year Treasury, average | 1.64% | |
| CRE loans at U.S. banks | $2.32T | +6.2% y/y |
| CRE loan delinquency, U.S. banks | 0.67% | 2019-Q4 |
Freddie Mac PMMS, U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve (H.8; charge-off and delinquency rates) via FRED. National series: the cost and availability of the money that buys NWA property.
New businesses
applications to start a business
| Measure | This period | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas, all applications (6 mo.) | 12,500 | -3.8% |
| Arkansas, likely employers | 4,546 | -1.7% |
| Benton + Washington, 2019 | 5,090 | -7.3% |
Census Business Formation Statistics: IRS employer-ID applications. Arkansas monthly, seasonally adjusted, compared with the same months a year earlier; county counts are published yearly. Applications are intent, not openings. More on new businesses
Growth patterns
core cities · 12-month sales tax at period end
| City | Growth now | A year earlier | Momentum | Share of core 6 | A year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bentonville | +21.0% | -14.0% | ↗ speeding up | 19.9% | 17.8% |
| Siloam Springs | +11.1% | -4.7% | ↗ speeding up | 5.1% | 4.9% |
| Bella Vista | +10.7% | +7.3% | ↗ speeding up | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| Rogers | +7.1% | +4.7% | ↗ speeding up | 25.6% | 25.8% |
| Springdale | +5.4% | +4.3% | → steady | 19.8% | 20.3% |
| Fayetteville | +2.5% | +3.9% | → steady | 28.2% | 29.8% |
Growth = the 12 months of local sales-tax distributions to 2019-12 vs the 12 before (Arkansas DFA); momentum compares that rate with the same reading a year earlier (±2 points). Share = each city's part of the core-6 total. More ways to read growth in the Growth Lab.
City by city
28 cities · Core first
| City | Sales tax | Change | 24 months | Homes permitted | Per 1,000 residents | Growth score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fayetteville | $24.7M | +4.5% | 1,263 | 13.4 | 55 | |
| Rogers | $22.3M | +8.7% | 374 | 5.3 | 45 | |
| Bentonville | $17.3M | +26.9% | 415 | 7.7 | 55 | |
| Springdale | $17.2M | +8.2% | 183 | 2.1 | 31 | |
| Siloam Springs | $4.4M | +24.3% | 113 | 6.5 | 46 | |
| Bella Vista | $1.3M | +19.3% | 149 | 4.9 | 63 | |
| Lowell | $2.3M | +11.1% | 50 | 5.1 | 56 | |
| Centerton | $1.7M | +14.4% | 376 | 21.0 | 58 | |
| Eureka Springs | $1.6M | +8.5% | — | — | — | |
| Tontitown | $1.6M | +20.1% | 556 | 129.3 | 67 | |
| Prairie Grove | $922,620 | +39.9% | 61 | 8.7 | 66 | |
| Elkins | $691,483 | +5.8% | 51 | 14.2 | 48 | |
| Gentrytax change? | $667,034 | +64.4% | 42 | 11.0 | 55 | |
| Gravette | $591,680 | -2.8% | 32 | 9.0 | 44 | |
| Pea Ridge | $435,232 | +15.4% | 59 | 8.9 | 80 | |
| West Fork | $400,716 | +0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | 14 | |
| Johnson | $387,374 | +10.7% | 5 | 1.4 | 70 | |
| Highfill | $385,750 | -0.4% | 53 | 33.4 | 41 | |
| Lincoln | $298,637 | +0.2% | 8 | 3.5 | 34 | |
| Cave Springs | $255,858 | +24.0% | 77 | 13.4 | 70 | |
| Greenland | $212,452 | +10.8% | 3 | 1.9 | 33 | |
| Decatur | $141,094 | -5.8% | 0 | — | 53 | |
| Garfield | $77,819 | +8.3% | — | — | 46 | |
| Goshen | $76,688 | — | 16 | 7.6 | 37 | |
| Elm Springs | $69,259 | +20.8% | 31 | 13.1 | 60 | |
| Avoca | $51,169 | +22.5% | — | — | 45 | |
| Sulphur Springs | $12,985 | +22.4% | 0 | — | 23 | |
| Springtown | $898 | -26.7% | — | — | 52 |
Sales tax: AR DFA local distributions in the window; sparkline = the 24 months ending 2019-12. Homes: Census BPS. Per 1,000 residents uses the 2020 census. Growth score is today's 479 Growth Pressure Score, not the score as of this period.
Method and definitions
- Local sales tax
- What the state distributes back to each city from its local sales and use tax, by DFA report month (about two months after the sale). Changes compare the same cities in both periods.
- Tax change?
- A city whose receipts moved 40% or more in one period, or 15% a year over several, usually adopted or changed a local tax. It's shown, and left out of rankings and region totals.
- Homes permitted
- Residential units authorized by building permits, all building sizes (Census Building Permits Survey, place level).
- 4-period trend
- Direction of this period and the three before it of the same length (least-squares slope with a small tolerance). Describes what happened; not a forecast.
- Metro
- Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO metropolitan area (CBSA 22220).
Cite this report
The 479 Report, "Northwest Arkansas Semi-annual Report: Second half 2019," https://the479report.com/reports/semiannual/2019-h2/ (data through 2019-12; generated 2026-11-09).
Free to reuse with that credit. This report as JSON.
Who publishes this. The 479 Report, Siloam Springs, Arkansas. The numbers come from public agencies; commentary is market commentary, not investment, legal or tax advice.
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