Reports · Semi-annual · Jan 2026 – Jun 2026
Northwest Arkansas, First half 2026
Local sales-tax receipts across 31 NWA cities rose 2.5% versus the same period a year earlier. Receipts totaled $160.4M across all 31 reporting cities.
What happened
generated from the data
- Local sales-tax receipts across 31 NWA cities rose 2.5% versus the same period a year earlier. Receipts totaled $160.4M across all 31 reporting cities.
- Among the Core cities, Bella Vista led at +9.8% and Springdale trailed at -3.1%.
- The fastest register growth was outside the Core: Elm Springs at +34.4%.
- Builders pulled permits for 4,520 residential units region-wide, up 14.2% year over year.
- The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.27% in the period, 54 basis points lower than a year earlier.
- Employed residents in the NWA metro averaged 313,293 in the period, up 3.4% from a year earlier.
- Momentum at period end (12-month sales-tax growth vs a year earlier): speeding up in Siloam Springs; slowing in Springdale.
- The metro counted 308,300 jobs in June 2026, up 8,300 from June 2025; leisure & hospitality added the most (+3,000), financial activities shed the most (-300) (BLS, preliminary for recent months).
Every sentence above is a fixed template filled with computed values; no figure is typed by hand. Trend arrows compare this period with the three before it of the same length: they describe, they don't forecast. Market commentary, not advice.
Demand: the registers
local sales tax · vs same period a year earlier
Supply: homes permitted
| Place | Units | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Fayetteville | 1,666 | +84.1% |
| Bentonville | 557 | -7.0% |
| Bella Vista | 363 | -15.6% |
| Rogers | 356 | +2.6% |
| Springdale | 287 | +21.1% |
| Pea Ridge | 228 | -22.4% |
| Centerton | 192 | -28.6% |
| Prairie Grove | 135 | +51.7% |
| Farmington | 116 | +5.5% |
| Lowell | 106 | +34.2% |
| Johnson | 101 | small base |
| Siloam Springs | 81 | -44.9% |
| Gentry | 75 | +29.3% |
| Tontitown | 60 | +252.9% |
| Cave Springs | 41 | -8.9% |
| Elkins | 40 | -38.5% |
| Decatur | 35 | +94.4% |
| Highfill | 20 | -78.5% |
| Gravette | 14 | -22.2% |
| Little Flock | 13 | small base |
| West Fork | 11 | small base |
| Avoca | 9 | small base |
| Lincoln | 6 | small base |
| Goshen | 4 | -66.7% |
| Garfield | 4 | small base |
Census Building Permits Survey, residential units authorized (all building sizes). Places with zero units in the period are omitted; changes off fewer than 10 units show as "small base".
4,642 permits issued · $765.0M declared valuation
By our sector tag: residential 3008, other 1384, retail 193, multifamily 36, civic 12, industrial 9
| Largest permits | Valuation | Issued |
|---|---|---|
| 77 S Duncan Avecommercial building permit | $115.4M | 2026-03-05 |
| 620 N Marinoni Drcommercial building permit | $63.3M | 2026-03-17 |
| 510 W Spring Stcommercial building permit | $41.1M | 2026-06-04 |
| 919 SE 4th Stnew home | $18.8M | 2026-04-13 |
| 321 S Block Avecommercial building permit | $14.2M | 2026-05-29 |
| 246 N Marinoni Drcommercial building permit | $13.0M | 2026-05-13 |
| 3124 E Joyce Blvdmechanical permit | $8.5M | 2026-04-02 |
| 3124 E Joyce Blvdelectrical permit | $8.4M | 2026-05-05 |
| 1092 W Pathfinder Waycommercial building permit | $6.9M | 2026-01-30 |
| 1076 W Thorn Trail Ctcommercial building permit | $6.9M | 2026-01-30 |
City of Bentonville permits-issued reports (public record). Valuation as printed by the city. Rogers, Springdale and Fayetteville join as their records load.
Economy
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Employed residents, NWA metro | 313,293 | +3.4% |
| Unemployment rate, NWA metro | 3.35% | window avg |
| Unemployment rate, U.S. | 4.30% | window avg |
| FHFA house price index, NWA | 2026-Q2 | +3.7% |
BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics and FHFA All-Transactions HPI via FRED. Metro = Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO (includes Madison Co. AR and McDonald Co. MO).
Capital markets
| Rate or balance | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year mortgage, average | 6.27% | -54 bp y/y |
| 10-year Treasury, average | 4.31% | |
| 2-year Treasury, average | 3.78% | |
| CRE loans at U.S. banks | $3.11T | +3.1% y/y |
| CRE loan delinquency, U.S. banks | 1.53% | 2026-Q2 |
Freddie Mac PMMS, U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve (H.8; charge-off and delinquency rates) via FRED. National series: the cost and availability of the money that buys NWA property.
New businesses
applications to start a business
| Measure | This period | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas, all applications (6 mo.) | 22,304 | +21.9% |
| Arkansas, likely employers | 6,213 | +11.1% |
Census Business Formation Statistics: IRS employer-ID applications. Arkansas monthly, seasonally adjusted, compared with the same months a year earlier; county counts are published yearly. Applications are intent, not openings. More on new businesses
Growth patterns
core cities · 12-month sales tax at period end
| City | Growth now | A year earlier | Momentum | Share of core 6 | A year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bella Vista | +9.7% | +11.6% | → steady | 3.9% | 3.6% |
| Siloam Springs | +6.7% | +2.1% | ↗ speeding up | 5.2% | 5.0% |
| Fayetteville | +3.0% | +4.1% | → steady | 26.4% | 26.0% |
| Rogers | +2.1% | +2.7% | → steady | 24.7% | 24.6% |
| Springdale | -0.9% | +6.2% | ↘ slowing | 19.8% | 20.3% |
| Bentonville | -1.5% | 0.0% | → steady | 19.9% | 20.6% |
Growth = the 12 months of local sales-tax distributions to 2026-06 vs the 12 before (Arkansas DFA); momentum compares that rate with the same reading a year earlier (±2 points). Share = each city's part of the core-6 total. More ways to read growth in the Growth Lab.
City by city
31 cities · Core first
| City | Sales tax | Change | 24 months | Homes permitted | Per 1,000 residents | Growth score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fayetteville | $34.0M | +2.2% | 1,666 | 17.7 | 55 | |
| Rogers | $32.2M | +3.1% | 356 | 5.1 | 45 | |
| Bentonville | $26.7M | +7.5% | 557 | 10.3 | 55 | |
| Springdale | $25.7M | -3.1% | 287 | 3.3 | 31 | |
| Siloam Springs | $6.8M | +3.1% | 81 | 4.7 | 46 | |
| Bella Vista | $5.2M | +9.8% | 363 | 12.1 | 63 | |
| Lowell | $4.6M | -11.0% | 106 | 10.8 | 56 | |
| Centerton | $3.4M | +0.6% | 192 | 10.7 | 58 | |
| Tontitown | $3.4M | +0.5% | 60 | 14.0 | 67 | |
| Pea Ridge | $2.2M | +3.4% | 228 | 34.5 | 80 | |
| Farmington | $2.1M | +11.2% | 116 | 15.3 | 55 | |
| Eureka Springs | $2.0M | +4.2% | — | — | — | |
| Prairie Grove | $1.9M | +10.9% | 135 | 19.2 | 66 | |
| Cave Springs | $1.3M | +16.3% | 41 | 7.1 | 70 | |
| Johnson | $1.3M | +13.0% | 101 | 28.0 | 70 | |
| Highfill | $1.2M | +2.4% | 20 | 12.6 | 41 | |
| Elkins | $1.1M | -1.4% | 40 | 11.1 | 48 | |
| Gentry | $1.0M | -13.7% | 75 | 19.7 | 55 | |
| Gravette | $967,196 | +10.8% | 14 | 3.9 | 44 | |
| Lincoln | $714,471 | +0.7% | 6 | 2.6 | 34 | |
| Greenland | $658,512 | +25.8% | 0 | — | 33 | |
| West Fork | $636,074 | +1.5% | 11 | 4.7 | 14 | |
| Decatur | $309,895 | +2.2% | 35 | 19.7 | 53 | |
| Goshen | $282,717 | +10.5% | 4 | 1.9 | 37 | |
| Garfield | $173,293 | -3.5% | 4 | 6.7 | 46 | |
| Little Flock | $168,374 | +7.9% | 13 | 4.3 | 37 | |
| Elm Springs | $158,938 | +34.4% | 0 | — | 60 | |
| Winslow | $79,152 | +1.7% | — | — | 14 | |
| Avoca | $73,064 | -11.6% | 9 | 18.5 | 45 | |
| Sulphur Springs | $64,681 | +27.3% | 0 | — | 23 | |
| Springtown | $4,154 | -35.1% | — | — | 52 |
Sales tax: AR DFA local distributions in the window; sparkline = the 24 months ending 2026-06. Homes: Census BPS. Per 1,000 residents uses the 2020 census. Growth score is today's 479 Growth Pressure Score, not the score as of this period.
Broker-reported fundamentals
Vacancy, rent and absorption come from brokerage research, not public record. Shown as published, with the publisher named, so you can check the original.
The Skyline Report, First Half of 2026 (Center for Business and Economic Research, University of Arkansas) · as of 2026-H1 · source
| office: vacancy rate skyline | The office vacancy rate rose to 8.1 percent in the first half of 2026, up from 7.5 percent |
| retail: vacancy rate skyline | In the retail submarket, the vacancy rate remained at 6.0 percent |
| industrial: warehouse vacancy skyline | The warehouse vacancy rate increased to 9.7 percent in the first half of 2026 from 6.1 percent |
| overall: commercial vacancy | The overall vacancy rate for commercial property increased to 7.6 percent in the first half of 2026 (one-pager) |
| overall: net absorption | net negative absorption of 704,828 square feet |
| overall: new deliveries | the addition of 1,066,767 new square feet of commercial space |
| medical office: vacancy rate | Medical Office Percent Available 3.3% (commercial report p.28) |
Method and definitions
- Local sales tax
- What the state distributes back to each city from its local sales and use tax, by DFA report month (about two months after the sale). Changes compare the same cities in both periods.
- Tax change?
- A city whose receipts moved 40% or more in one period, or 15% a year over several, usually adopted or changed a local tax. It's shown, and left out of rankings and region totals.
- Homes permitted
- Residential units authorized by building permits, all building sizes (Census Building Permits Survey, place level).
- 4-period trend
- Direction of this period and the three before it of the same length (least-squares slope with a small tolerance). Describes what happened; not a forecast.
- Metro
- Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO metropolitan area (CBSA 22220).
Cite this report
The 479 Report, "Northwest Arkansas Semi-annual Report: First half 2026," https://the479report.com/reports/semiannual/2026-h1/ (data through 2026-06; generated 2026-11-09).
Free to reuse with that credit. This report as JSON.
Who publishes this. The 479 Report, Siloam Springs, Arkansas. The numbers come from public agencies; commentary is market commentary, not investment, legal or tax advice.
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