Reports · Five-year · Jan 2016 – Dec 2020
Northwest Arkansas, 2016–2020
Local sales-tax receipts across 13 NWA cities (excluding 11 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 25.5% from 2016 to 2020 (+5.8% a year). Receipts totaled $889.4M across all 24 reporting cities.
What happened
generated from the data
- Local sales-tax receipts across 13 NWA cities (excluding 11 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 25.5% from 2016 to 2020 (+5.8% a year). Receipts totaled $889.4M across all 24 reporting cities.
- Among the Core cities, Bentonville led at +49.7% and Fayetteville trailed at +15.7%.
- The fastest register growth was outside the Core: Pea Ridge at +71.2%.
- 11 cities show moves large enough to reflect a new or changed local tax rather than spending (Cave Springs, Gentry, Tontitown, Bella Vista…); they are marked in the table and left out of the rankings above.
- Builders pulled permits for 26,597 residential units region-wide, up 63.0% comparing 2020 with 2016.
- The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 3.84% in the period.
- Employed residents in the NWA metro averaged 256,408 in 2020, up 5.1% from 2016.
- Momentum at period end (12-month sales-tax growth vs a year earlier): speeding up in Bella Vista, Springdale, Fayetteville; slowing in Bentonville, Rogers.
- The metro counted 256,200 jobs in December 2020, up 12,800 from December 2016; education & health added the most (+3,600), retail trade shed the most (-300) (BLS, preliminary for recent months).
Every sentence above is a fixed template filled with computed values; no figure is typed by hand. Trend arrows compare this period with the three before it of the same length: they describe, they don't forecast. Market commentary, not advice.
Demand: the registers
local sales tax · 2016 → 2020
Supply: homes permitted
| Place | Units | First→last year |
|---|---|---|
| Bentonville | 5,907 | +28.6% |
| Fayetteville | 4,990 | +53.0% |
| Rogers | 3,242 | +35.0% |
| Centerton | 2,562 | +116.9% |
| Tontitown | 1,468 | +609.7% |
| Springdale | 1,437 | -17.5% |
| Bella Vista | 1,246 | +324.5% |
| Siloam Springs | 864 | +57.1% |
| Cave Springs | 860 | -24.4% |
| Prairie Grove | 746 | +56.8% |
| Pea Ridge | 656 | +43.9% |
| Farmington | 578 | +608.6% |
| Lowell | 559 | +21.2% |
| Gentry | 300 | +740.0% |
| Elkins | 269 | +117.4% |
| Elm Springs | 214 | +145.2% |
| Goshen | 174 | -25.6% |
| Highfill | 145 | small base |
| Gravette | 144 | small base |
| Little Flock | 79 | +9.1% |
| Johnson | 67 | small base |
| West Fork | 31 | -70.0% |
| Lincoln | 29 | small base |
| Decatur | 18 | small base |
| Greenland | 11 | small base |
| Sulphur Springs | 1 | small base |
Census Building Permits Survey, residential units authorized (all building sizes). Places with zero units in the period are omitted; changes off fewer than 10 units show as "small base".
Bentonville's permit records in this project begin 2024-01-02. For earlier periods, the Census homes-permitted table (left) covers every city.
City of Bentonville permits-issued reports (public record). Valuation as printed by the city. Rogers, Springdale and Fayetteville join as their records load.
Economy
| Measure | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Employed residents, NWA metro | 256,408 | +5.1% |
| Unemployment rate, NWA metro | 3.13% | window avg |
| Unemployment rate, U.S. | 4.98% | window avg |
| FHFA house price index, NWA | 2020-Q4 | +32.6% |
BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics and FHFA All-Transactions HPI via FRED. Metro = Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO (includes Madison Co. AR and McDonald Co. MO).
Capital markets
| Rate or balance | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year mortgage, average | 3.84% | |
| 10-year Treasury, average | 2.02% | |
| 2-year Treasury, average | 1.42% | |
| CRE loans at U.S. banks | $2.40T | |
| CRE loan delinquency, U.S. banks | 1.15% | 2020-Q4 |
Freddie Mac PMMS, U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve (H.8; charge-off and delinquency rates) via FRED. National series: the cost and availability of the money that buys NWA property.
Home values by ZIP
2016 → 2020
| ZIP | Change |
|---|---|
| 72959 Winslow | +32.6% |
| 72712 Bentonville | +31.0% |
| 72736 Gravette | +29.7% |
| … | |
| 72732 Garfield | +16.1% |
| 72774 West Fork | +20.2% |
| 72704 Fayetteville | +20.8% |
| Benton County | +25.1% |
| Washington County | +23.6% |
FHFA house price index (a change in value, not a price), 24 ZIPs with an index. Strongest three, weakest three, then each county. Every ZIP.
Growth patterns
core cities · 12-month sales tax at period end
| City | Growth now | A year earlier | Momentum | Share of core 6 | A year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bella Vista | +88.6% | +10.7% | ↗ speeding up | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Siloam Springs | +12.9% | +11.1% | → steady | 5.4% | 5.1% |
| Springdale | +8.2% | +5.4% | ↗ speeding up | 20.2% | 19.8% |
| Bentonville | +5.4% | +21.0% | ↘ slowing | 19.8% | 19.9% |
| Fayetteville | +5.0% | +2.5% | ↗ speeding up | 27.9% | 28.2% |
| Rogers | +0.6% | +7.1% | ↘ slowing | 24.2% | 25.6% |
Growth = the 12 months of local sales-tax distributions to 2020-12 vs the 12 before (Arkansas DFA); momentum compares that rate with the same reading a year earlier (±2 points). Share = each city's part of the core-6 total. More ways to read growth in the Growth Lab.
City by city
24 cities · Core first
| City | Sales tax | First→last | 24 months | Homes permitted | Per 1,000 residents | Growth score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fayetteville | $228.8M | +15.7% | 4,990 | 52.9 | 55 | |
| Rogers | $199.3M | +17.4% | 3,242 | 46.4 | 45 | |
| Springdale | $157.5M | +29.6% | 1,437 | 16.5 | 31 | |
| Bentonville | $150.7M | +49.7% | 5,907 | 109.1 | 55 | |
| Siloam Springs | $41.0M | +25.8% | 864 | 49.7 | 46 | |
| Bella Vistatax change? | $12.8M | +138.9% | 1,246 | 41.4 | 63 | |
| Lowell | $21.6M | +42.9% | 559 | 56.8 | 56 | |
| Centertontax change? | $15.1M | +83.3% | 2,562 | 143.4 | 58 | |
| Eureka Springs | $13.7M | +7.7% | — | — | — | |
| Tontitowntax change? | $12.5M | +146.7% | 1,468 | 341.3 | 67 | |
| Prairie Grovetax change? | $7.1M | +93.0% | 746 | 105.9 | 66 | |
| Gravette | $6.1M | +14.7% | 144 | 40.6 | 44 | |
| Gentrytax change? | $4.7M | +150.1% | 300 | 78.9 | 55 | |
| Pea Ridge | $3.9M | +71.2% | 656 | 99.2 | 80 | |
| West Forktax change? | $3.7M | +97.8% | 31 | 13.3 | 14 | |
| Cave Springstax change? | $3.0M | +283.4% | 860 | 149.3 | 70 | |
| Lincoln | $2.8M | +28.3% | 29 | 12.6 | 34 | |
| Greenlandtax change? | $1.7M | +104.0% | 11 | 7.1 | 33 | |
| Decatur | $1.4M | -1.9% | 18 | 10.2 | 53 | |
| Garfieldtax change? | $735,947 | +85.2% | — | — | 46 | |
| Elm Springstax change? | $588,630 | +129.4% | 214 | 90.6 | 60 | |
| Avoca | $471,529 | +42.3% | — | — | 45 | |
| Sulphur Springs | $119,913 | +45.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 23 | |
| Springtowntax change? | $22,939 | -57.5% | — | — | 52 |
Sales tax: AR DFA local distributions in the window; sparkline = the 24 months ending 2020-12. Homes: Census BPS. Per 1,000 residents uses the 2020 census. Growth score is today's 479 Growth Pressure Score, not the score as of this period.
Method and definitions
- Local sales tax
- What the state distributes back to each city from its local sales and use tax, by DFA report month (about two months after the sale). Changes compare the same cities in both periods.
- Tax change?
- A city whose receipts moved 40% or more in one period, or 15% a year over several, usually adopted or changed a local tax. It's shown, and left out of rankings and region totals.
- Homes permitted
- Residential units authorized by building permits, all building sizes (Census Building Permits Survey, place level).
- 4-period trend
- Direction of this period and the three before it of the same length (least-squares slope with a small tolerance). Describes what happened; not a forecast.
- Metro
- Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO metropolitan area (CBSA 22220).
Cite this report
The 479 Report, "Northwest Arkansas Five-year Report: 2016–2020," https://the479report.com/reports/five-year/2016-2020/ (data through 2020-12; generated 2026-11-09).
Free to reuse with that credit. This report as JSON.
Who publishes this. The 479 Report, Siloam Springs, Arkansas. The numbers come from public agencies; commentary is market commentary, not investment, legal or tax advice.
Other reports: Weekly · Monthly · Quarterly · Semi-annual · Annual · Ten-year
Get the next one. The 479 email reads these reports so you don't have to.
New data, permits and hearings across Benton and Washington counties, in one short email. Join now and you'll get the first briefing.