10Y4.88%+2bp vs prior day2026-11-092Y4.56%+5bp vs prior day2026-11-0930Y MTG7.18%−6bp vs last week2026-11-05SOFR3.88%−1bp vs prior day2026-11-09FED FUNDS3.88%+13bp vs last month2026-10CPI4.1% y/y2026-10US UNEMP4.10%−10bp vs last month2026-10NWA UNEMP3.10%0bp vs last month2026-09NWA EMPLOYED319,315+1,325 vs last month2026-09FRED · Freddie Mac · BLS · data 2026-11-10

Reports · Monthly · Nov 2023

Northwest Arkansas, Nov 2023

Local sales-tax receipts across 24 NWA cities (excluding 6 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 5.9% versus the same period a year earlier. Receipts totaled $25.7M across all 31 reporting cities.

Local sales tax, all reporting cities
$25.7M
▲ 5.9% y/y
↘ falling, 4 periods
AR DFA · change on 24 comparable cities · 2023-11
Homes permitted (units)
433
▲ 38.6% y/y
↘ falling, 4 periods
Census BPS · 27 places · 2023-11
NWA employed residents
292,066
▲ 2.8% y/y
↗ rising, 4 periods
BLS LAUS via FRED, metro · 2023-11
30-year mortgage, average
7.44%
▲ 64 bp y/y
↗ rising, 4 periods
Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED · 2023-11
Unemployment, NWA vs U.S.2.70% vs 3.70%BLS via FRED, window average
10-year Treasury, average4.50%U.S. Treasury via FRED
CRE loans at U.S. banks$2.96T +5.5% y/yFed H.8 via FRED, 2023-11-29
House prices, NWA metro+8.9%FHFA HPI, 2023-Q4

What happened


generated from the data
  • Local sales-tax receipts across 24 NWA cities (excluding 6 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 5.9% versus the same period a year earlier. Receipts totaled $25.7M across all 31 reporting cities.
  • Among the Core cities, Bentonville led at +13.4% and Rogers trailed at -0.3%.
  • The fastest register growth was outside the Core: Farmington at +34.7%.
  • 6 cities show moves large enough to reflect a new or changed local tax rather than spending (Gravette, Winslow, Highfill, Pea Ridge…); they are marked in the table and left out of the rankings above.
  • Builders pulled permits for 433 residential units region-wide, up 38.6% year over year.
  • The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 7.44% in the period, 64 basis points higher than a year earlier.
  • Employed residents in the NWA metro averaged 292,066 in the period, up 2.8% from a year earlier.
  • Momentum at period end (12-month sales-tax growth vs a year earlier): speeding up in Bentonville; slowing in Rogers, Fayetteville, Bella Vista, Siloam Springs, Springdale.
  • The metro counted 291,000 jobs in November 2023, up 5,500 from November 2022; education & health added the most (+2,200), professional & business services shed the most (-1,100) (BLS, preliminary for recent months).

Every sentence above is a fixed template filled with computed values; no figure is typed by hand. Trend arrows compare this period with the three before it of the same length: they describe, they don't forecast. Market commentary, not advice.

Local sales tax by month
30 cities reporting in both years
Arkansas DFA Local Net Tax Distribution Reports, report month. Same cities in both lines.
Data through 2023-11 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Demand: the registers


local sales tax · vs same period a year earlier
Sales-tax change by city, vs same period a year earlier
Cities with a likely new or changed local tax are left out of this chart
Arkansas DFA Local Net Tax Distribution Reports; change computed from published monthly distributions.
Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Supply: homes permitted


PlaceUnitsChange
Fayetteville68+74.4%
Pea Ridge55small base
Rogers50-3.8%
Centerton49+188.2%
Bella Vista48+84.6%
Bentonville36+71.4%
Springdale28-22.2%
Siloam Springs26+8.3%
Tontitown180.0%
Lowell12small base
Farmington11small base
Highfill11small base
Gentry7small base
Gravette4small base
Little Flock4small base
Cave Springs3small base
Prairie Grove2small base
Greenland1small base

Census Building Permits Survey, residential units authorized (all building sizes). Places with zero units in the period are omitted; changes off fewer than 10 units show as "small base".

Bentonville permits


map

Bentonville's permit records in this project begin 2024-01-02. For earlier periods, the Census homes-permitted table (left) covers every city.

City of Bentonville permits-issued reports (public record). Valuation as printed by the city. Rogers, Springdale and Fayetteville join as their records load.

Economy


MeasureLevelChange
Employed residents, NWA metro292,066+2.8%
Unemployment rate, NWA metro2.70%window avg
Unemployment rate, U.S.3.70%window avg
FHFA house price index, NWA2023-Q4+8.9%

BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics and FHFA All-Transactions HPI via FRED. Metro = Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO (includes Madison Co. AR and McDonald Co. MO).

Capital markets


Rate or balanceLevelChange
30-year mortgage, average7.44%+64 bp y/y
10-year Treasury, average4.50%
2-year Treasury, average4.88%
CRE loans at U.S. banks$2.96T+5.5% y/y
CRE loan delinquency, U.S. banks1.16%2023-Q4

Freddie Mac PMMS, U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve (H.8; charge-off and delinquency rates) via FRED. National series: the cost and availability of the money that buys NWA property.

Jobs by industry, Nov 2023 vs Nov 2022
NWA metro, change in jobs · total 291,000 (+1.9%)
BLS Current Employment Statistics, Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA, not seasonally adjusted; same month compared with same month. Recent months are preliminary.
Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

New businesses


applications to start a business
MeasureThis periodChange
Arkansas, all applications (1 mo.)3,136+0.7%
Arkansas, likely employers1,006-11.0%

Census Business Formation Statistics: IRS employer-ID applications. Arkansas monthly, seasonally adjusted, compared with the same months a year earlier; county counts are published yearly. Applications are intent, not openings. More on new businesses

Growth patterns


core cities · 12-month sales tax at period end
CityGrowth nowA year earlierMomentumShare of core 6A year earlier
Bentonville+25.0%+12.2%↗ speeding up23.5%20.5%
Rogers+7.0%+11.8%↘ slowing23.4%23.9%
Fayetteville+5.2%+9.4%↘ slowing25.7%26.6%
Bella Vista+4.8%+13.0%↘ slowing3.2%3.3%
Siloam Springs+4.2%+7.9%↘ slowing4.9%5.1%
Springdale+2.7%+19.4%↘ slowing19.3%20.5%

Growth = the 12 months of local sales-tax distributions to 2023-11 vs the 12 before (Arkansas DFA); momentum compares that rate with the same reading a year earlier (±2 points). Share = each city's part of the core-6 total. More ways to read growth in the Growth Lab.

City by city


31 cities · Core first
CitySales taxChange24 monthsHomes permittedPer 1,000 residentsGrowth score
Fayetteville$5.5M+1.0%680.755
Rogers$4.8M-0.3%500.745
Bentonville$4.4M+13.4%360.755
Springdale$4.2M+5.5%280.331
Siloam Springs$1.0M+3.1%261.546
Bella Vista$739,205+6.5%481.663
Lowell$714,761+17.0%121.256
Centerton$632,675+30.4%492.758
Tontitowntax change?$513,442+45.8%184.267
Pea Ridgetax change?$454,897+80.9%558.380
Farmington$377,244+34.7%111.555
Gravettetax change?$334,316+151.0%41.144
Eureka Springs$315,090+2.4%———
Prairie Grove$272,797+4.9%20.366
Cave Springs$201,754+13.3%30.570
Johnson$192,181+15.6%0—70
Gentry$188,689+18.9%71.855
Elkins$171,349+24.4%0—48
Highfilltax change?$167,767+85.1%116.941
Lincoln$99,017-8.1%0—34
West Fork$94,854-2.6%0—14
Greenland$50,858—10.633
Goshen$42,012-0.7%0—37
Decaturtax change?$41,129+78.0%0—53
Little Flock$27,732+12.2%41.337
Elm Springs$26,680+20.4%0—60
Garfield$24,124-4.7%——46
Winslowtax change?$19,236+88.6%——14
Avoca$12,326+27.7%0—45
Sulphur Springs$4,297+21.8%0—23
Springtown$664+8.9%——52

Sales tax: AR DFA local distributions in the window; sparkline = the 24 months ending 2023-11. Homes: Census BPS. Per 1,000 residents uses the 2020 census. Growth score is today's 479 Growth Pressure Score, not the score as of this period.

Method and definitions


Local sales tax
What the state distributes back to each city from its local sales and use tax, by DFA report month (about two months after the sale). Changes compare the same cities in both periods.
Tax change?
A city whose receipts moved 40% or more in one period, or 15% a year over several, usually adopted or changed a local tax. It's shown, and left out of rankings and region totals.
Homes permitted
Residential units authorized by building permits, all building sizes (Census Building Permits Survey, place level).
4-period trend
Direction of this period and the three before it of the same length (least-squares slope with a small tolerance). Describes what happened; not a forecast.
Metro
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO metropolitan area (CBSA 22220).

Cite this report


The 479 Report, "Northwest Arkansas Monthly Report: Nov 2023," https://the479report.com/reports/monthly/2023-11/ (data through 2023-11; generated 2026-11-09).

Free to reuse with that credit. This report as JSON.

Who publishes this. The 479 Report, Siloam Springs, Arkansas. The numbers come from public agencies; commentary is market commentary, not investment, legal or tax advice.

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