Reports · Quarterly · Apr 2025 – Jun 2025

Northwest Arkansas, Q2 2025

Local sales-tax receipts across 30 NWA cities (excluding 1 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 5.5% versus the same period a year earlier. Receipts totaled $81.8M across all 31 reporting cities.

Local sales tax, all reporting cities

$81.8M

▲ 5.5% y/y

→ flat, 4 periods

AR DFA · change on 30 comparable cities · 2025-06

Homes permitted (units)

2,087

▲ 17.1% y/y

↘ falling, 4 periods

Census BPS · 28 places · 2025-06

NWA employed residents

305,848

▲ 3.2% y/y

↗ rising, 4 periods

BLS LAUS via FRED, metro · 2025-06

30-year mortgage, average

6.79%

▼ 21 bp y/y

↗ rising, 4 periods

Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED · 2025-06

Unemployment, NWA vs U.S.3.17% vs 4.20%BLS via FRED, window average

10-year Treasury, average4.36%U.S. Treasury via FRED

CRE loans at U.S. banks$3.01T +0.7% y/yFed H.8 via FRED, 2025-06-25

House prices, NWA metro+4.5%FHFA HPI, 2025-Q2

What happened

generated from the data

Local sales-tax receipts across 30 NWA cities (excluding 1 with a likely new or changed local tax) rose 5.5% versus the same period a year earlier. Receipts totaled $81.8M across all 31 reporting cities.
Among the Core cities, Bella Vista led at +13.9% and Springdale trailed at +3.5%.
The fastest register growth was outside the Core: Garfield at +21.9%.
1 city shows a move large enough to reflect a new or changed local tax rather than spending (Greenland); they are marked in the table and left out of the rankings above.
Builders pulled permits for 2,087 residential units region-wide, up 17.1% year over year.
The 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.79% in the period, 21 basis points lower than a year earlier.
Employed residents in the NWA metro averaged 305,848 in the period, up 3.2% from a year earlier.
Momentum at period end (12-month sales-tax growth vs a year earlier): speeding up in Bella Vista, Springdale, Fayetteville; slowing in Rogers.
The metro counted 300,000 jobs in June 2025, up 8,300 from June 2024; professional & business services added the most (+4,700), manufacturing shed the most (-500) (BLS, preliminary for recent months).

Every sentence above is a fixed template filled with computed values; no figure is typed by hand. Trend arrows compare this period with the three before it of the same length: they describe, they don't forecast. Market commentary, not advice.

Local sales tax by month

31 cities reporting in both years

Arkansas DFA Local Net Tax Distribution Reports, report month. Same cities in both lines.

Data through 2025-06 · Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Demand: the registers

local sales tax · vs same period a year earlier

Sales-tax change by city, vs same period a year earlier

Cities with a likely new or changed local tax are left out of this chart

Arkansas DFA Local Net Tax Distribution Reports; change computed from published monthly distributions.

Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

Supply: homes permitted

Place	Units	Change
Fayetteville	680	+103.6%
Bella Vista	243	+167.0%
Bentonville	210	+191.7%
Rogers	182	-3.7%
Pea Ridge	157	+48.1%
Centerton	139	-13.7%
Springdale	94	-66.8%
Lowell	65	+20.4%
Prairie Grove	53	+96.3%
Siloam Springs	51	-44.6%
Farmington	50	0.0%
Highfill	44	-68.3%
Gentry	34	+21.4%
Cave Springs	19	+58.3%
Decatur	18	small base
Elkins	15	-65.1%
Tontitown	10	-84.8%
Avoca	6	small base
Goshen	6	small base
Gravette	5	small base
West Fork	3	small base
Garfield	1	—
Greenland	1	small base
Johnson	1	small base

Census Building Permits Survey, residential units authorized (all building sizes). Places with zero units in the period are omitted; changes off fewer than 10 units show as "small base".

Bentonville permits

map

1,910 permits issued · $337.4M declared valuation

By our sector tag: residential 1015, other 753, retail 100, multifamily 26, civic 14, industrial 2

Largest permits	Valuation	Issued
3124 E Joyce Blvdfooting/foundation permit	$90.0M	2025-05-29
764 N Rupple Rdcommercial building permit	$28.6M	2025-06-04
888 S Rupple Rdcommercial building permit	$22.0M	2025-05-27
1278 W Van Asche Drcommercial building permit	$21.8M	2025-05-22
3581 W Mount Comfort Rdcommercial building permit	$7.6M	2025-04-04
2888 N Mansfield Avecommercial building permit	$7.0M	2025-06-18
3561 W Perennial Drcommercial building permit	$5.9M	2025-04-04
3613 W Perennial Drcommercial building permit	$5.9M	2025-04-04
2172 N Rupple Rdcommercial building permit	$5.9M	2025-04-04
2919 N Mansfield Avecommercial building permit	$5.0M	2025-06-18

City of Bentonville permits-issued reports (public record). Valuation as printed by the city. Rogers, Springdale and Fayetteville join as their records load.

Economy

Measure	Level	Change
Employed residents, NWA metro	305,848	+3.2%
Unemployment rate, NWA metro	3.17%	window avg
Unemployment rate, U.S.	4.20%	window avg
FHFA house price index, NWA	2025-Q2	+4.5%

BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics and FHFA All-Transactions HPI via FRED. Metro = Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO (includes Madison Co. AR and McDonald Co. MO).

Capital markets

Rate or balance	Level	Change
30-year mortgage, average	6.79%	-21 bp y/y
10-year Treasury, average	4.36%
2-year Treasury, average	3.86%
CRE loans at U.S. banks	$3.01T	+0.7% y/y
CRE loan delinquency, U.S. banks	1.57%	2025-Q2

Freddie Mac PMMS, U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve (H.8; charge-off and delinquency rates) via FRED. National series: the cost and availability of the money that buys NWA property.

Jobs by industry, Jun 2025 vs Jun 2024

NWA metro, change in jobs · total 300,000 (+2.9%)

BLS Current Employment Statistics, Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA, not seasonally adjusted; same month compared with same month. Recent months are preliminary.

Free to reuse with the credit line. · Corrections

New businesses

applications to start a business

Measure	This period	Change
Arkansas, all applications (3 mo.)	9,901	+7.8%
Arkansas, likely employers	2,968	+0.7%

Census Business Formation Statistics: IRS employer-ID applications. Arkansas monthly, seasonally adjusted, compared with the same months a year earlier; county counts are published yearly. Applications are intent, not openings. More on new businesses

Growth patterns

core cities · 12-month sales tax at period end

City	Growth now	A year earlier	Momentum	Share of core 6	A year earlier
Bella Vista	+11.6%	+6.1%	↗ speeding up	3.6%	3.3%
Springdale	+6.2%	+1.4%	↗ speeding up	20.3%	19.8%
Fayetteville	+4.1%	+0.7%	↗ speeding up	26.0%	25.8%
Rogers	+2.7%	+8.3%	↘ slowing	24.6%	24.8%
Siloam Springs	+2.1%	+3.5%	→ steady	5.0%	5.0%
Bentonville	0.0%	-0.2%	→ steady	20.6%	21.3%

Growth = the 12 months of local sales-tax distributions to 2025-06 vs the 12 before (Arkansas DFA); momentum compares that rate with the same reading a year earlier (±2 points). Share = each city's part of the core-6 total. More ways to read growth in the Growth Lab.

City by city

31 cities · Core first

City	Sales tax	Change	Homes permitted	Per 1,000 residents	Growth score
Fayetteville	$17.3M	+4.8%	680	7.2	55
Rogers	$16.8M	+6.1%	182	2.6	45
Springdale	$13.6M	+3.5%	94	1.1	31
Bentonville	$13.2M	+3.9%	210	3.9	55
Siloam Springs	$3.4M	+4.4%	51	2.9	46
Bella Vista	$2.5M	+13.9%	243	8.1	63
Lowell	$2.2M	+7.4%	65	6.6	56
Tontitown	$1.8M	+16.8%	10	2.3	67
Centerton	$1.7M	+3.3%	139	7.8	58
Eureka Springs	$1.1M	-2.9%	—	—	—
Pea Ridge	$1.1M	+11.1%	157	23.7	80
Farmington	$982,528	+5.3%	50	6.6	55
Prairie Grove	$858,679	+11.0%	53	7.5	66
Highfill	$666,909	+13.8%	44	27.7	41
Cave Springs	$617,979	+18.2%	19	3.3	70
Gentry	$612,548	+2.9%	34	8.9	55
Johnson	$609,257	+10.4%	1	0.3	70
Elkins	$584,269	+15.9%	15	4.2	48
Gravette	$462,371	-3.8%	5	1.4	44
Lincoln	$365,511	+10.0%	0	—	34
Greenlandtax change?	$326,100	+89.3%	1	0.6	33
West Fork	$316,325	+11.6%	3	1.3	14
Decatur	$150,342	+14.5%	18	10.2	53
Goshen	$128,356	+9.2%	6	2.9	37
Garfield	$96,369	+21.9%	1	1.7	46
Little Flock	$79,832	+6.2%	0	—	37
Elm Springs	$72,671	-3.6%	0	—	60
Avoca	$44,681	+7.6%	6	12.3	45
Winslow	$38,637	-8.1%	—	—	14
Sulphur Springs	$24,738	-4.3%	0	—	23
Springtown	$2,827	+15.6%	—	—	52

Sales tax: AR DFA local distributions in the window; sparkline = the 24 months ending 2025-06. Homes: Census BPS. Per 1,000 residents uses the 2020 census. Growth score is today's 479 Growth Pressure Score, not the score as of this period.

Method and definitions

Local sales tax: What the state distributes back to each city from its local sales and use tax, by DFA report month (about two months after the sale). Changes compare the same cities in both periods.
Tax change?: A city whose receipts moved 40% or more in one period, or 15% a year over several, usually adopted or changed a local tax. It's shown, and left out of rankings and region totals.
Homes permitted: Residential units authorized by building permits, all building sizes (Census Building Permits Survey, place level).
4-period trend: Direction of this period and the three before it of the same length (least-squares slope with a small tolerance). Describes what happened; not a forecast.
Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO metropolitan area (CBSA 22220).

Cite this report

The 479 Report, "Northwest Arkansas Quarterly Report: Q2 2025," https://the479report.com/reports/quarterly/2025-q2/ (data through 2025-06; generated 2026-11-09).

Free to reuse with that credit. This report as JSON.

Who publishes this. The 479 Report, Siloam Springs, Arkansas. The numbers come from public agencies; commentary is market commentary, not investment, legal or tax advice.

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